BirdCast Migration Forecast -- 5 March 2012
This southerly jet predicted for Wednesday, 7 March 2012, should induce some spring bird migration.
THIS WEEK'S BIRDCAST - 5-9 March 2012
See animated wind maps for the week
This week’s weather will feature a large high pressure system moving from southern Canada early in the week, and will be off the East Coast by mid-week. This high pressure system will lead to a prolonged period of southerly winds and very mild weather from the southern Plains up through the Great Lakes and the northeast United States from Tuesday to Thursday. A cold front will drop south later in the week through the Great Lakes, Northeast and Middle Atlantic States replacing the southerly winds with a chilly north wind. Warmer southerly winds should prevail across the southeastern U.S. into the end of the week as the front stalls in the Carolinas.
Wind map for Monday, 5 March 2012, at 925 mb. The small arrows indicate wind direction and the number of hatches indicate wind strength.
Wind map for Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 925 mb. The green area indicates a nice area of southerly wind flow that should yield significant bird movement through the Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes regions.
Along the West Coast a powerful cold front will bring 20-30 mph northwest winds to the region, likely resulting in good from-shore sea-watching conditions.
Species to watch for include: Geese and swans, ducks, Loons, American White Pelican, early herons and egrets, Turkey Vulture, Osprey, Hawks, American Kestrel, Killdeer, American Woodcock, Gulls, Belted Kingfisher, Tree Swallow, Purple Martin (in the south), Brown Creeper, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Hermit Thrush, sparrows (especially Song and Fox) and blackbirds. Early trans-Gulf migrant passerines possibly along the Gulf Coast (e.g., Prothonotary Warbler).
Birders in many areas of the US east of the Rockies should see the signs of new spring arrivals on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday, depending on your location relative to the approach and passage of this high-pressure system. This should include arrivals of early trans-Gulf migrant landbirds in the Gulf of Mexico region. Some light migration may be evident in the central US (primarily east of the Rockies but west of the Great Lakes) by Monday as the system takes shape on its march eastward. By Tuesday, southerly winds and mild weather forecast from the Texas coast to the Great Lakes should produce more widespread and increasingly favorable conditions for diurnal and nocturnal migration.
West Coast sea-watchers could see significant numbers of alcids, gulls, loons, and tubenoses from shore during the blustery conditions following Tuesday's storm. Be on the lookout for albatrosses as well as Fork-tailed Storm-Petrels during these conditions.
For those examining radar imagery at night, one might expect to see some birds moving (with peak reflectivity values in the 5-15 dBz range, approximating 50-100 birds km-3). For those listening at night, expect to hear the first substantive nocturnal flight calling events of the season (particularly sparrows, Hermit Thrush, Brown Creeper, and waterfowl) as early season migrants continue moving northward. As the system continues to track toward the Atlantic, favorable migration conditions will likely spawn movements in the Ohio River Valley and western Appalachia by Wednesday, perhaps even as far as the Atlantic seaboard. The pattern for this area should continue on Thursday, when many signs of early spring migrants should be apparent. By Friday, the influence of unfavorable conditions after frontal passage will presumably stall migration across much of the eastern US, with the exception of some coastal locations on the Atlantic seaboard.
As always, we encourage you to get out both before and after the weather event, report your birds to eBird, and let us know what you see (email Marshall Iliff with noteworthy observations, and put “eBird BirdCast” as the email subject).
PREVIOUS BIRDCAST RESULTS - 25-26 February 2012
Although it is still February, when bird migration can be expected to be minimal overall, the predictions for 25-26 Feb 2012 were borne out by observations on the ground. Thanks to all those who report regularly to eBird from the Great Plains and Great Lakes, since your reports from before and after this weather system will help refine these predictions in the future. Although a full analysis of the observations is not possible at this stage, here are a few observations that indicate that indeed birds were on the move with the warm jet on 25-26 Feb 2012.
- eBirder Pete Janzen wrote to the Kansas listserv "Last weekend Kevin and I found Quivira NWR to be sparsely inhabited by birds. Today's [26 Feb] report from Barry Jones is a strong contrast to what we observed. I note that the new bird migration forecast tool available on eBird nailed it on predicting this shift." Barry's list included first arrivals for Cinnamon Teal (1), Northern Shoveler (100), Ruddy Duck (40), and American Coot (1), but is not (yet!) in eBird.
- Road-tripping eBird project leaders Brian Sullivan and Chris Wood report seeing American White Pelicans, Ring-billed Gulls, and geese (five species) in high, migratory flight on Sunday 26 Feb and Monday 27 Feb (see their checklists here, here, and here). They also had an early Cinnamon Teal in Oklahoma 26 Feb.
- American Woodcocks on southern Lake Michigan first appeared on Sunday evening, suggesting possible migration to the area on Saturday night/Sunday morning). See checklists here and here. Zoom in to see points (red for recent, blue for historical) on the February map for American Woodcock to put these in context--they are very early for this area based on past eBird data!
- Radar imagery overnight on 25-26 February shows some bird migration occurring around selected radar stations in the vicinity of the southerly winds (the birds are the light blue circular scatter in s. Missouri, Arkansas, e. Oklahoma, and e. Kansas, as well as the somewhat heavier signal in se. Nebraska).
PREVIOUS BIRDCAST FORECAST - 25-26 February 2012
Watch for a good migration of birds up through the Great Plains on Saturday night (25 Feb 2012) and Sunday (26 Feb 2012). As the weakening storm moves eastward, we can probably expect some bird movement through the Great Lakes and maybe even the Northeast on Monday and Monday night, but it is not likely to be nearly as strong.The combination of a high pressure system moving across the eastern United States Saturday and Saturday night and a low pressure system tracking into the northern Plains is leading to a strong pressure difference across the Plains. It is this difference in pressure that drives the winds. Since high pressure has clockwise flow and low pressure has counter-clockwise flow, this is a recipe for strong south winds up the central Plains Saturday night and Sunday.
Species to watch for include: Geese and swans, Ducks, Turkey Vulture, Osprey, Other Raptors, Killdeer, American Woodcock, Belted Kingfisher, Swallows, Sparrows and Blackbirds.
The exceptionally warm winter across much of the Eastern US means that migrants may be on the move earlier than usual this year, and we are already seeing this in many places (see Woodcock and Killdeer below). Many facultative March migrants are likely to be ahead of schedule, and record early arrival dates could occur given this combination of a warm winter and an early blast of warm air. So get out there and see what you can find!
Below are some of the species groups to watch for as this unusually early blast of warm air sets spring bird migration in motion. If you live in the southern United States or Mexico, you might watch for the early departure of some of these birds.
Geese and swans – Snow, Canada, Cackling, Greater White-fronted, and Ross’s Geese should all be on the move with this weather system. Watch for them to potentially move north to staging areas in Nebraska, and possibly to Quebec and points further east. There is also a possibility that some western geese (Cackling, Greater White-fronted, and Ross's) could be displaced eastward with the strong southwesterly flow. Watch also for Tundra Swans departing the mid-Atlantic and heading up through the Great Lakes.
Ducks – A range of puddle ducks and diving ducks could be moving, including Mallard, American Black Duck, Northern Pintail, Green-winged Teal, Canvasback, scaup, Bufflehead, and many others. The first arriving Blue-winged Teal and Wood Ducks may also appear. We expect waterfowl concentrations primarily at traditional staging grounds. Also watch for species like Northern Pintail in flocks of northbound Snow Geese. Since there is no significant rain forecast, inland duck fallouts are unlikely.
Turkey Vulture – A classic March migrant, Turkey Vultures have been occurring as earlier and earlier migrants in recent years and have been overwintering with increasing frequency in more northern areas. Expect a good push of them on this warm blast.
Osprey – In many areas where Ospreys don’t winter, they return in March, with exceptional arrivals (on the East Coast, at least) back at nests by late February. If you need Osprey for your local February list, this year could be your best bet!
Other Raptors – Many hawks are on the move already in late February and March, and with conditions like these, the Great Lakes hawkwatches (e.g., Hawk Ridge (Duluth, MN), Braddock Bay, Derby Hill, and others) are apt to do quite well, depending on the daytime winds at each site. Many Rough-legged Hawks (and possibly a few Snowy Owls) will use this weather to move northward, along with Golden and Bald Eagles and Red-tailed Hawks. Northern Goshawks could be on the move through the Great Lakes region.
Killdeer – A late February/early March migrant, we are already seeing Killdeer on the move this year. Check out the 2012 January map compared to the February one and note the incursion into the upper Midwest. We can certainly expect more Killdeer with next week’s weather, setting up an earlier than average arrival across a broad front.
American Woodcock – Woodcocks typically move into mid-latitudes starting in late February, with arrival in more northerly states in mid-March. Many places (as far north as Maine!) are already seeing pioneering woodcocks up to three weeks ahead of schedule, and like Killdeer, this pattern can be expected to continue. Watch for them in the evening in areas where old fields mix with younger woodlots. On calm evenings, you may hear them 'peenting' and displaying.
Belted Kingfisher – Arrival in the northern half of the country usually begins in mid-March, but many have wintered farther north this year due to the unusual amount of open water. This could be an interesting species to watch; will their migration begin two weeks early given the mild winter and favorable winds?
Swallows – Early returning Tree Swallows or (exceptionally) Barn Swallows could occur under these conditions too, so be alert for the vanguard of the swallow arrival.
Sparrows – This early in the season many sparrows are stealthy migrants whose migration is difficult to discern. Song Sparrows and Dark-eyed Juncos are two species that could be on the move, both of which are often ignored since they winter widely. Watch for both species in higher numbers or in areas where you haven't seen them this winter. American Tree Sparrows could start withdrawing back to the north, and Fox Sparrow is a well-known early spring migrant, with movements well underway in March.
Blackbirds – Species such as Red-winged Blackbird, Common Grackle, and Brown-headed Cowbird are the first signs of spring migration in many places, usually first appearing in February. Look for legions of blackbirds to move north with this system.
As birds are headed north in spring, southerly winds helps them along. The longer it continues, the more birds will arrive. However, the best conditions for birders to witness migration occurs when favorable weather occurs in pulses interspersed with unfavorable weather; this causes birds to move en masse on the first break in the weather. Many birds wait until favorable southerly winds develop before initiating migration, and when the right conditions occur, large migration events often happen. Of course good migration days don’t always mean that you will notice the migration, since much of the movement occurs at night for passerines (landbirds), waterfowl, and shorebirds. You might hear flight calls overhead at night (especially geese, shorebirds, and sparrows), and might see some movement of geese and raptors during the day, but in other cases you are most likely to notice that the selection birds at your local patch seems to have changed overnight.
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Posted 5 March 2012 by Marshall Iliff, Christopher Wood, and Brian Sullivan on behalf of Team eBird and BirdCast.
ABOUT BIRDCAST
BirdCast is a project of NOAA and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology that will be studying bird migration and weather, using eBird data in conjunction with NOAA weather forecasts and novel computer modeling techniques. In Spring 2012 BirdCast will publish periodic forecasts discussing and predicting bird migration. Your observations from before and after these events will be be used to develop better predictive models relating to birds and weather. Hopefully BirdCast will provide useful alerts about the best birding days in your area and heighten general awareness about the connection between bird migration and weather.
As always, we encourage you to get out both before and after the weather event, report your birds to eBird, and let us know what you see (email Marshall Iliff with noteworthy observations, and put “eBird BirdCast” as the email subject).
Special thanks to David Nicosia, our partner at NOAA, for the weather maps and analysis.
